Which will be the first year the USA has less than 15k traffic deaths? (42k in 2024)
Sociedad y cultura6aManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableAviso de calidad de datosDatos de la fuente degradados
Datos del 25 oct 2026, 17:24 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Pronóstico comunitario actualNever, or only in 2033 or later 69.2%Líder entre 5 opciones
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Actualizado hace 15 horas
Desactualizado16 feb 25, 18:52 UTC2 feb 33, 7:59 UTC
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Manifold MarketsTurner Prize 2026 Winner
PolymarketReglas
Each bucket is two chances to win! All years are inclusive
- Every calendar year Jan - Dec is a measurement point.
- If you think it won't happen, even including 2032, then bet the option for it not happening.
- I've chosen a restricted range so that skeptics have a shorter term option.
