Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
Sí 55.3%
Pronosticadores
8
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 10 horas
Desactualizado8 may 23, 20:32 UTC31 may 27, 4:59 UTC
Tendencias
Reglas
Resolves YES when I complete my Ph.D. (measured by successfully defending my thesis) or NO if I have not done so by the close date (5 academic years after my start).
- I appear to be moving at a pace where this seems plausible but research is unpredictable.
- There are also potential reasons why I may try to do a 6th year even if not strictly necessary (funding isn't necessarily guaranteed for a 6th year but can be obtained sometimes).
- Currently though I'd like to graduate in 5 if I can.
- Since my personal decisions can influence this market's outcome significantly, I won't bet on it.
Mercados abiertos
Science
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31-0.4pt3%
- September 30+0.1pt0%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 61,6 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 750,8 mil €
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 202920%
- Before 2028-1.0pt13%
- Before 20275%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 30,1 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 30 mil €
POLYMARKETWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- 1+0.5pt75%
- 2+1.0pt24%
- 3+0.1pt1%
+3 resultados más
KALSHIWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- Yes-1.0pt69%
- No31%
- Volumen total
- 311,2 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 1,8 mil €
KALSHIWhen will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- before 2027+17.0pt95%
- before December+20.0pt90%
- before November+30.0pt86%
+3 resultados más
KALSHIHow many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Above 0+2.0pt40%
- Above 1+3.0pt18%
- Above 24%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 109,9 mil €
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Will WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- When will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Will humans colonize Mars before 2050?
- Lowest Great Salt Lake elevation in 2026?
- Will the world pass 2 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels before 2050?
- How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?
- AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?
- US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?
- How many tuberculosis cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
- What named storms will be hurricanes in the Central Pacific this year?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will I get my math Ph.D. within 5 years of starting??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Yes al 55.3% a fecha de 23 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will I get my math Ph.D. within 5 years of starting??
- Está previsto que Will I get my math Ph.D. within 5 years of starting? se resuelva el 31 de mayo de 2027.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will I get my math Ph.D. within 5 years of starting??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolves YES when I complete my Ph.D. (measured by successfully defending my thesis) or NO if I have not done so by the close date (5 academic years after my start).