Manifold MarketsCerradoSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableEste mercado se resolvió: Yes, a higher tier introduced and added to the current Sol/Terra/Luna naming somehow (97.2%)
Resuelto: 29 sept 2026, 1:26
Resolución verificada por el proveedor
CoinRithm tiene evidencia del ganador y del momento de liquidación respaldada por el proveedor para este mercado.
Aviso de calidad de datosDatos obsoletos
Datos del 29 sept 2026, 17:10 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Cronología de Probabilidad
Yes, a higher tier introduced with a change in naming scheme0.6%
Yes, a higher tier introduced and added to the current Sol/Terra/Luna naming somehow97.2%
No, Sol remains the highest tier and has similar speed and pricing as 5.6 (the status quo answer)1.3%
No, but one or more models in existing tiers CLEARLY become bigger (as reflected by their speed and pricing or other strong signals)0.8%
Ganada
Perdida
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Reglas
In an industry with already poor average naming track record, OpenAI is still unrivaled in naming their models without any consideration for common sense, user experience, or marketing foresight.
- Now, with GPT-6 release allegedly only weeks away, many are speculating that the new flagship will be in a size category of its own akin to Anthropic's Mythos/Fable.
- But then how does it fit into the neat current Sol/Terra/Luna naming scheme? Would a potential higher tier take on the name of some bigger star (Antares?) or the entire Milky Way galaxy ("Galaxias"?)? So many questions!
- Note on the last option: in the absence of direct testimonials from Sam & Co, I will go by consensus opinion of industry analysts and my best informed judgment; resolution might be delayed in this case or may have to rely on a separate poll or market intended to gauge opinions on the matter.
- EDIT 2026-07-31: If the current tier structure changes with a release in the 5.x family before GPT-6 is announced, this still qualifies for one of the two YES options.
- Update 2026-08-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): * If Astra is released in the 5.x family and retains the name "Astra" separate from Sol and other tiers, it will resolve as an addition to the existing naming scheme (Option #2).