Pronóstico comunitario actual
Sí 90.4%
Pronosticadores
15
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 10 horas
Desactualizado18 jul 26, 5:42 UTC31 dic 30, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will a Fields Medal be awarded to a human mathematician by the end of 2030?
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KalshiReglas
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if exactly four humans, and no other parties, are officially awarded the Fields Medal in the calendar year 2030.
- It resolves to NO if this is not the case (in the calendar year 2030) for any reason.
- For example, this market will resolve NO if any AI model is awarded the medal in 2030, or if no medals are awarded in 2030.
- The Fields Medal is awarded every four years by the International Mathematical Union (IMU) during the International Congress of Mathematicians (ICM).
- According to the IMU statutes, the selection committee is instructed to choose at least two and no more than four Fields Medalists under the age of 40, with a strong preference for awarding exactly four medals.
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will four humans receive the Fields Medal in 2030??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Yes al 90% a fecha de 9 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will four humans receive the Fields Medal in 2030??
- Está previsto que Will four humans receive the Fields Medal in 2030? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2030.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will four humans receive the Fields Medal in 2030??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolution criteria