Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 94.2%
Pronosticadores
24
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 22 minutos
25 sept 23, 0:20 UTC1 ene 30, 7:59 UTC
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Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will Elon Musk create a parent company to consolidate his various business interests (e.g., Tesla, SpaceX, etc.) by 2027
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FutuurWill Elon Musk create a market on Manifold before the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhich company will create AGI first?
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Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiReglas
Resolves YES if by the creator's best judgement, a Elon-Musk-controlled company creates an AGI by 2030 before any other company.
- Tesla AI and xAI are the main AI labs to monitor, but any Elon-controlled company counts.
- Also resolves YES if a nonprofit or government program led by Musk creates the first AGI by 2030, or if Elon Musk personally develops the first AGI.
- Resolves NO if a non-Musk organization creates AGI first by 2030 or if AGI does not exist by 2030.
- Judgement on whether a model constitutes AGI will be at the discretion of the creator, who will take into account benchmark performance, expert opinion, and any other evidence deemed to be credible.
