Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 92.5%
Pronosticadores
29
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 51 minutos
Retrasado7 jul 23, 10:03 UTC30 jun 28, 22:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will Donald J. Trump win the Republican Nomination for US President in 2028?
ForecastExWill Donald Trump have been the Republican nominee in every presidential election from 2016 until his death?
Manifold MarketsWill Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2028?
Manifold Markets2028 Republican nominee?
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ForecastExNH-01 Republican nominee?
KalshiReglas
Most other (manifold) markets have converged on a ~25% probability (as of July 7th 2023) of Donald Trump winning the 2024 United States presidential election.
- Given this, what is the likelihood that Donald Trump will seek and win the Republican nomination in 2028?
- This market will resolve YES if Donald Trump is the 2028 Republican presidential nominee.
- This market will resolve NO if Donald Trump is still alive and is not the 2028 nominee.
- If Donald Trump dies before the relevant date, this market will resolve N/A. I am open to arguments about changing the N/A criteria such that his death will make this market resolve NO.
Mercados abiertos
Politics
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 605,7 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 697,7 mil €
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
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- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 resultados más
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 603,2 M €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 183,4 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 471,3 mil €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 resultados más
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee in 2028??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 93% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee in 2028??
- Está previsto que Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee in 2028? se resuelva el 30 de junio de 2028.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee in 2028??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Most other (manifold) markets have converged on a ~25% probability (as of July 7th 2023) of Donald Trump winning the 2024 United States presidential election.