Will Democrats win back the house in 2026 midterms?
PolíticaOne-OffPolítica de EE. UU.ElecciónElecciones de mitad de mandato de EE. UU. 202619d
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableAviso de calidad de datosDatos de la fuente degradados
Datos del 26 oct 2026, 3:24 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Pronóstico comunitario actualSí 92%
Pronosticadores
14
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 1 hora
Retrasado19 sept 26, 3:15 UTC14 nov 26, 11:00 UTC
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KalshiReglas
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if, as a result of the 2026 United States House of Representatives elections (scheduled for November 3, 2026), the Democratic Party wins back control of the House of Representatives for the 120th Congress.
- Specifically, YES will be the resolving outcome if:
- The Democratic Party wins a majority of at least 218 of the 435 voting seats.
- Or, if neither major party wins 218 seats due to independents or third-party representatives, the Democratic Party successfully organizes the chamber (e.g., by electing a Democrat as Speaker of the House at the start of the 120th Congress in January 2027).
- The market will resolve to NO if the Republican Party (or any other non-Democratic coalition) retains or wins a majority of seats or successfully organizes the chamber.