Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoPronóstico comunitario actualSí 80.3%
Pronosticadores
10
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 8 horas
Desactualizado9 oct 26, 1:34 UTC20 ene 29, 12:00 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
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KalshiReglas
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if democracy in the United States is deemed to have survived the second Trump administration.
- It will resolve to NO if any of the following events occur prior to the end of the administration (scheduled for January 20, 2029):
- No Presidential Election: The United States fails to hold a nationwide presidential election during the year 2028.
- EIU Downgrade: In the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) Democracy Index report covering the year 2028 (typically published in early 2029), the United States' classification is downgraded to a "Hybrid regime" or "Authoritarian regime" (overall score below 6.00).
- V-Dem Downgrade: In the Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Institute’s annual Democracy Report covering the year 2028 (typically published in early 2029), the United States is classified as either an "Electoral autocracy" or "Closed autocracy".
