Second Trump administration holds at least one oil/gas sale for drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge?
One-OffPolítica de EE. UU.Materias primas2aManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableAviso de calidad de datosDatos de la fuente degradados
Datos del 26 oct 2026, 5:51 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Pronóstico comunitario actualSí 91%
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8
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binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 9 horas
Desactualizado20 ene 25, 8:15 UTC22 ene 29, 7:59 UTC
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Background The Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) has been a focal point of energy policy debates.
- During Trump's first term, a January 2021 lease sale attracted minimal interest, with most bids coming from Alaska's state-owned development corporation rather than major oil companies.
- A subsequent lease sale in January 2025 received no bids at all, highlighting the economic and logistical challenges of Arctic drilling.
- Resolution Criteria This market will resolve YES if the Trump administration holds at least one lease sale for oil and gas drilling rights in ANWR between January 20, 2025, and January 20, 2029.
- The sale must be officially announced and conducted by the Department of Interior, regardless of whether it receives any bids.
- The market will resolve NO if no such lease sale is held during this period.
