Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 81.6%
Pronosticadores
17
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 10 minutos
1 oct 26, 14:56 UTC1 nov 26, 6:59 UTC
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Resolves YES if, between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Pacific, DeepSeek publicly releases DeepSeek-V4.1-Pro, or any higher Pro/flagship tier that replaces it (e.g. V4.2-Pro, V5, V5-Pro).
- What counts as released: anyone can use it without an invitation, through DeepSeek's API, its official chat app/website, or as publicly downloadable open weights.
- An open public preview or beta counts, the way the "DeepSeek-V4 Preview" (April 24) would have.
- Closed betas, invite-only access, anonymous arena appearances and leaks do not count.
- What does NOT count: Flash, Lite, Mini, vision-experimental or distilled models.
- DeepSeek-V4.1-Flash came out on Sept 10, 2026 and does not count, and neither does any later Flash-tier model.