Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 90.4%
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155
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
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Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 12 horas
Desactualizado31 oct 23, 6:40 UTC1 ene 50, 7:59 UTC
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Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will climate change decimate humans before 2070?
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Manifold MarketsIndia meets its 2030 climate goals?
KalshiUS meets its climate goals?
KalshiEU meets its 2030 climate goals?
KalshiReglas
If climate-based disasters, including their chain reactions (drought -> famine; sea level rises -> migration -> disease; etc.), cause a 10% reduction ("decimation") of humans by the close date this resolves YES.
- Otherwise NO after close.
- 10% reduction might mean any one or mix of factors:
- outright deaths
- decrease in fertility causing population decline w/in timeframe
- reduction in population replacement curves, over the global average
Mercados abiertos
Health & Medicine
POLYMARKETHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
- No-0.1pt97%
- Yes+0.1pt3%
- Volumen total
- 15,6 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 18,3 mil €
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+1.9pt4%
- Volumen total
- 1,6 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 5,2 mil €
KALSHIWhen will Intellia Therapeutics submit a BLA for Lonvo-z?
- before October+64.0pt98%
- before 2027+22.0pt98%
- before December+30.0pt98%
+3 resultados más
POLYMARKETFDA approves skin cancer vaccine by which date?
- December 31,+6.0pt65%
- September+2.0pt41%
- June28%
- Volumen total
POLYMARKETNew pandemic in 2026?
- No+0.5pt94%
- Yes-0.5pt6%
- Volumen total
- 916 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 1,5 mil €
KALSHIMeasles cases in 2026?
- Above 300099%
- Above 400097%
- Above 6000-2.0pt57%
+2 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 863,6 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 1 mil €
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will climate change decimate humans before 2050??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 90% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will climate change decimate humans before 2050??
- Está previsto que Will climate change decimate humans before 2050? se resuelva el 1 de enero de 2050.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will climate change decimate humans before 2050??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: If climate-based disasters, including their chain reactions (drought -> famine; sea level rises -> migration -> disease; etc.), cause a 10% reduction ("decimation") of humans by the close date this resolves YES.