Pronóstico comunitario actual
No 83.4%
Pronosticadores
18
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 10 horas
Desactualizado26 jun 26, 22:43 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
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Will China restrict the open release of frontier AI models above a capability threshold by end of 2027?
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Resolution criteria:
- Resolves YES if, before 1 Jan 2027, there is either (a) an official Chinese government announcement, regulation, or directive, or (b) reporting from at least two credible outlets, indicating that the Chinese state has imposed a binding restriction, licensing/approval requirement, or prohibition specifically on the public release of open-weight AI models that exceed a defined capability threshold — where the threshold is tied to capability or scale (e.g. training compute, benchmark performance, or a designated "frontier"/high-risk tier).
- The restriction must be conditioned on model capability/scale.
- It does not count if it is merely an extension of existing content-moderation, or security-review rules that apply to AI services regardless of capability, nor if it applies only to closed/API-served models.
- Related: @/SamuelKnoche/will-china-restrict-the-open-releas-s0zyntZ0LI
Mercados abiertos
ChinaPOLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.1pt96%
- Yes+0.1pt4%
- Volumen total
- 35,3 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 100,1 mil €
POLYMARKETXi Jinping out before 2027?
- No+0.2pt96%
- Yes-0.2pt4%
- Volumen total
- 11,3 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 38,7 mil €
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Beijing on September 9?
- 26°C+18.0pt56.1%
- 27°C-3.0pt19.6%
- 25°C-3.5pt15.9%
+8 resultados más
POLYMARKETChina x Philippines military clash before 2027?
- No-0.5pt72.3%
- Yes+0.5pt27.7%
- Volumen total
- 356,3 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 13,5 mil €
POLYMARKETWill Xi Jinping visit US by which date?
- October 31+1.6pt98%
- December 31+1.6pt97%
- September 3095%
+3 resultados más
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
- No+1.0pt89.1%
- Yes-1.0pt10.9%
- Volumen total
- 2,7 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 11 mil €
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will China restrict the open release of frontier AI models above a capability threshold by end of 2026??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 83% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will China restrict the open release of frontier AI models above a capability threshold by end of 2026??
- Está previsto que Will China restrict the open release of frontier AI models above a capability threshold by end of 2026? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will China restrict the open release of frontier AI models above a capability threshold by end of 2026??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolution criteria: