Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 89%
Pronosticadores
8
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 6 horas
Desactualizado19 jul 26, 12:08 UTC31 dic 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will China attempt to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
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PolymarketWill China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
PolymarketReglas
This market will resolve "yes" if there is a Chinese military attack with the intention to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027.
- This question is answered "No" if there is:
- no military conflict between the two parties
- a limited military conflict without triggering a major war
- On the one hand, this time span approximately reaches the maximum forecast range (~<5 years), as Philip E. Tetlock in his book Superforecasting: the art and science of prediction.
- Moreover, 2027 is the year in which, as frequently reported, China wants to seek military capabilities to successfully invade Taiwan without saying that it will act accordingly.
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will China attempt to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 89% a fecha de 9 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will China attempt to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027??
- Está previsto que Will China attempt to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2027.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will China attempt to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: This market will resolve "yes" if there is a Chinese military attack with the intention to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027.