Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 90.8%
Pronosticadores
12
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 1 hora
Retrasado21 dic 23, 22:29 UTC1 ene 50, 6:59 UTC
Tendencias
Reglas
Resolution criteria here are fairly loose—the birth of a profession relatively recognizable as similar to that of the “Blade Runner” in the 2049 film will satisfy here.
- Does not need to be an embodied AGI that is the runner or the hunter (and the former can of course also be human), but AGI needs to have been widely recognized as “invented” and active before 2049 for this market to be possibly resolved “yes.” (Bug hunting for OpenAI in 2024 does not even remotely count as a “yes.”)
- Haven’t seen the movie yet? You’re missing out! Check out the trailer here:
- (https://www.youtube.com/embed/Icx4xul9LEE?si=V3Y6yH8RpaNve5r0)
