Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
No 77%
Pronosticadores
9
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 5 horas
Desactualizado10 dic 25, 3:58 UTC30 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
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Manifold MarketsReglas
Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves YES if Bluesky publicly reports, or a credible third-party source confirms, that the platform has exceeded 50 million monthly active users (MAU) at any point before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Acceptable sources for resolution:
- Official Bluesky blog posts, press releases, or SEC filings
- Statements from Bluesky CEO Jay Graber or official Bluesky accounts
- Reporting from major outlets (NYT, WSJ, Bloomberg, The Verge, TechCrunch) citing internal data or people familiar with the matter
Mercados abiertos
Regulation
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+2.0pt86%
- Yes-2.0pt14%
- Volumen total
- 12,4 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 182,3 mil €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Jan 1, 2028-14.0pt40%
- Before Jul 1, 2027-5.0pt37%
- Before Oct 1, 2027-16.0pt33%
+7 resultados más
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028+3.0pt67%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-7.0pt43%
+8 resultados más
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 202795%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 1,4 M €
POLYMARKETWhat will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- $1.25T–$1.5T-0.1pt20.4%
- $1.75T–$2.0T19.4%
- $1.5T–$1.75T+0.1pt18.4%
+5 resultados más
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will Bluesky exceed 50 million monthly active users before December 31, 2026??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 77% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will Bluesky exceed 50 million monthly active users before December 31, 2026??
- Está previsto que Will Bluesky exceed 50 million monthly active users before December 31, 2026? se resuelva el 30 de diciembre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will Bluesky exceed 50 million monthly active users before December 31, 2026??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolution Criteria