Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableAviso de calidad de datosDatos de la fuente degradados
Datos del 26 oct 2026, 10:07 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Pronóstico comunitario actualJoe Biden 40%
Pronosticadores
25
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 6 horas
Desactualizado18 jun 24, 13:00 UTC19 ene 29, 22:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will Trump survive through end-of-term (Jan 20, 2029) without succumbing to natural causes/old age.
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PolymarketReglas
Both Biden and Trump get criticized for being quite old.
- This, among other problems, brings an increased risk for death from natural causes.
- The male life expectancy in the USA is 73.5 years, an age they both passed already.
- What is the chance they pass away from natural causes before the end of the next presidential term?
- This market resolves per person to YES once they die of natural causes, NO if they die from non natural causes, and NO if they are alive on the end of the next presidential term (20th of January 2029), whichever comes first.
