Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
No 74.9%
Pronosticadores
19
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 15 horas
Desactualizado23 abr 26, 8:16 UTC31 dic 28, 23:59 UTC
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Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Artemis III launches before 2029?
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PolymarketWill Artemis III be flown with a crewed landing?
Manifold MarketsReglas
Artemis IV is planned to be NASA's first crewed lunar landing since Apollo 17 in 1972, sending four astronauts to lunar orbit aboard an SLS/Orion stack, with two crew descending to the lunar South Pole via a commercial Human Landing System (SpaceX Starship HLS or Blue Origin Blue Moon).
- NASA is officially targeting early 2028 for launch.
- Artemis II (crewed lunar flyby) successfully flew April 1–11, 2026.
- Artemis III (HLS test in Earth orbit) is targeted for mid-2027 and must fly first.
- Both HLS landers (Starship HLS, Blue Moon) still need to complete human-rating certification.
- Resolves YES if the Artemis IV SLS/Orion stack lifts off from the pad (T-0, engine ignition and liftoff) on or before 23:59 UTC on December 31, 2028, regardless of mission success afterward.
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will Artemis IV launch by end of December 2028??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 75% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will Artemis IV launch by end of December 2028??
- Está previsto que Will Artemis IV launch by end of December 2028? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2028.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will Artemis IV launch by end of December 2028??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Artemis IV is planned to be NASA's first crewed lunar landing since Apollo 17 in 1972, sending four astronauts to lunar orbit aboard an SLS/Orion stack, with two crew descending to the lunar South Pole via a commercial Human Landing System (SpaceX Starship HLS or Blue Origin Blue Moon).