Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualSí 51.9%
Pronosticadores
9
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 2 horas
Desactualizado4 ene 26, 9:35 UTC31 dic 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will a reliable and general household robot be developed before January 1st, 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill there be real-world protests in the US of at least 1,000 people against AI art by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill a quantum attack lead to a real-world crypto theft exceeding $100M before 2032?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketReglas
Resolves YES if, by Jan 1, 2028:
- a publicly documented benchmark exists that evaluates physical (non-simulated) household tasks;
- tasks have explicit success/failure criteria;
- results are intended for comparison across different robots or systems (not a single-vendor demo).
- Resolves NO otherwise.
Mercados abiertos
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Volumen total
- 224,7 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 160,5 mil €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 resultados más
- Volumen total
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 2,3 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 344,9 mil €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 9,1 M €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 resultados más
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will any real-world household robot benchmark appear by EOY 2027??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Yes al 52% a fecha de 9 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will any real-world household robot benchmark appear by EOY 2027??
- Está previsto que Will any real-world household robot benchmark appear by EOY 2027? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2027.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will any real-world household robot benchmark appear by EOY 2027??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolves YES if, by Jan 1, 2028: