Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualSí 51.9%
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9
Tipo de pregunta
binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Actualizado hace 35 minutos
4 ene 26, 9:35 UTC31 dic 27, 23:59 UTC
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Will a reliable and general household robot be developed before January 1st, 2030?
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Resolves YES if, by Jan 1, 2028:
- a publicly documented benchmark exists that evaluates physical (non-simulated) household tasks;
- tasks have explicit success/failure criteria;
- results are intended for comparison across different robots or systems (not a single-vendor demo).
- Resolves NO otherwise.