Will any OpenAI models be restricted to US in 2026?
América LatinaOne-OffIAEntretenimientoMúsicaEuropa2m
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoPronóstico comunitario actualNo 74.5%
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12
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
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Actualizado hace 7 horas
Desactualizado13 jun 26, 13:34 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
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This market asks whether OpenAI will release or operate a model that ends up gated to the United States — by geography, residency, or nationality — while being withheld from its normal international user base.
- "Restricted to US persons" is used loosely, for intent.
- The market does not turn on the formal legal definition (citizens, green-card holders, etc.).
- What matters is that a model is gated to the US / people in the US / US residents / US nationals by law or policy, and most of OpenAI's usual foreign user base cannot use it.
- Resolves YES if OpenAI releases or operates any model (via ChatGPT, the API, or any OpenAI product) that becomes subject to a US-only restriction through any of:
- Geography — available to users accessing from within the US but withheld from a substantial share of the countries OpenAI normally serves (UK, EU, Canada, Japan, India, Australia, Brazil, etc.).
