Will any LLM produce a reasonable poker simulation, as judged by Nate Silver, by the end of 2028?
IAOne-Off2aManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualSí 56.2%
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10
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
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Actualizado hace 11 minutos
22 may 25, 18:16 UTC31 dic 28, 23:59 UTC
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https://open.substack.com/pub/natesilver/p/chatgpt-is-shockingly-bad-at-poker
- I'm expecting Nate to repeat this test.
- If he doesn't even try, this resolves NO.
- Update 2025-05-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has specified conditions regarding tool usage by the LLM, in line with Nate Silver's post about testing for general intelligence:
- The LLM must not use tools specifically designed for poker (e.g., dedicated poker solvers).
- The LLM may use generic tools, such as the ability to write and execute Python scripts.