Will any January 6th participant pardoned/commuted by Trump be responsible for a homicide before 1/20/2027?
PolíticaOne-OffPolítica de EE. UU.Crimen y justicia2mManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableAviso de calidad de datosDatos de la fuente degradados
Datos del 26 oct 2026, 4:15 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Pronóstico comunitario actualNo 62.3%
Pronosticadores
9
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 2 horas
Desactualizado24 ene 25, 20:54 UTC21 ene 27, 4:59 UTC
Tendencias
Reglas
Background President Trump has the pardoned or commuted the sentences of individuals involved in the January 6th Capitol riot, including individuals convicted for violent acts that occurred during those events.
- Resolution Criteria This market will resolve YES if:
- Any pardoned/commuted individual is found legally responsible (through conviction or guilty plea) for a homicide that occurs between their pardon/commutation and January 20, 2027
- The homicide can be of any type (first degree, second degree, manslaughter, etc.)
- The market will resolve NO if:
- No pardoned/commuted January 6th participant is found legally responsible for a homicide during the specified timeframe
