Will any gulf-state make a side-deal with Iran to avoid further attacks?
Política de EE. UU.One-OffGeopolíticaOriente Medio1a
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoPronóstico comunitario actualNo 60%
Pronosticadores
9
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 10 horas
Desactualizado16 mar 26, 12:06 UTC1 ene 28, 11:41 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will UAE leave the Gulf Cooperation Council in 2026?
PolymarketWill Iran successfully attack major oil terminal in Persian Gulf by EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill a crossing of the Gulf of Aqaba between Egypt and Saudi Arabia have started construction by 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill the Gulf Railway be completed by 2030?
Manifold MarketsKuwait is the first real democracy in the Gulf
Manifold MarketsUS-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketReglas
Any deal that could be easily perceived as "against the interests of the USA" will be considered.
- These include but are not limited to: - Kicking out USA military personnel from local bases - Temporarily restricting US operations in said bases - Restricting airspace access to the USA - Agreeing to only sell oil in Yuan for the duration of the conflict
- The deal must: 1) Offer a concrete non-aggression guarantee by Iran 2) Sideline the USA* 3) Be publicly acknowledged by both sides
- *A deal between the USA and Iran that happens to help conditions for all the gulf-states will not be considered.
- (That said, I can see a world where Bahrain and Iran strike a deal and Trump insists it's his deal cause he's the dealmaker...
- I would consider this still sidelines the USA if it clearly favours Bahrain only.)
