Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 64.2%
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11
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
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Pronóstico
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Actualizado hace 1 hora
Retrasado9 sept 26, 9:40 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
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Which of these will successfully land on the Moon in 2026?
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FutuurWill Blue Origin land on the moon before SpaceX?
KalshiReglas
Several robotic lunar landers are targeting touchdown attempts in 2026, including Blue Origin's Blue Moon Mark 1 (early 2026, south pole near Shackleton Crater), Intuitive Machines' IM-3 Nova-C lander (H1 2026, Reiner Gamma region), and Astrobotic's Griffin-1 (NET July 2026, south pole near Mons Mouton).
- Other missions (e.g. additional CLPS or international landers) could also attempt landings during the year.
- This market resolves YES if at least one uncrewed or crewed spacecraft achieves a soft/successful landing on the lunar surface at any point during 2026 (any mission, any country or company — not limited to the ones named above).
- Resolution criteria:
- Resolves YES if a credible source (NASA, the mission operator, or major spaceflight news outlets such as Spaceflight Now, SpaceNews, or Space.com) confirms a spacecraft has landed on the Moon intact and functional (i.e., not a hard-impact/crash landing) between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026.
- A landing counts regardless of whether the mission achieves its full objectives afterward — the bar is a successful touchdown, not mission longevity.
