Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
No 63.5%
Pronosticadores
8
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
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Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 10 horas
Desactualizado10 feb 25, 1:00 UTC1 ene 28, 4:59 UTC
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Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will Al achieve 85% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2030?
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Manifold MarketsWill Al achieve 85% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2027?
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PolymarketReglas
Humanity's Last Exam (HLE) is a benchmark designed to evaluate Al systems' reasoning and problem-solving capabilities across a wide range of academic disciplines, including mathematics, humanities, and natural sciences.
- Developed collaboratively by the Center for Al Safety and Scale Al, HLE comprises 3,000 unambiguous and verifiable academic questions contributed by nearly 1,000 subject-matter experts from over 500 institutions across 50 countries.
- The dataset is multimodal, with approximately 10% of the questions requiring both image and text comprehension, while the remaining 90% are text-based.
- As of early 2025, state-of-the-art Al models have demonstrated limited success on the HLE benchmark.
- For instance, OpenAl's 03-mini (high) model achieved an accuracy of 13% when evaluated solely on text-based questions.
- OpenAl's Deep Research agent, which leverages the 03 model for extensive web browsing and data analysis, reached an accuracy of 26.6% on the HLE benchmark.
Mercados abiertos
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will Al achieve 95% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2028??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 64% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will Al achieve 95% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2028??
- Está previsto que Will Al achieve 95% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2028? se resuelva el 1 de enero de 2028.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will Al achieve 95% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2028??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Humanity's Last Exam (HLE) is a benchmark designed to evaluate Al systems' reasoning and problem-solving capabilities across a wide range of academic disciplines, including mathematics, humanities, and natural sciences.