Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualSí 58%
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Actualizado hace 1 hora
Retrasado22 abr 26, 10:08 UTC31 dic 28, 11:07 UTC
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Manifold MarketsReglas
From https://blog.mozilla.org/en/privacy-security/ai-security-zero-day-vulnerabilities/:
- Encouragingly, we also haven’t seen any bugs that couldn’t have been found by an elite human researcher.
- Some commentators predict that future AI models will unearth entirely new forms of vulnerabilities that defy our current comprehension, but we don’t think so.
- Software like Firefox is designed in a modular way for humans to be able to reason about its correctness.
- It is complex, but not arbitrarily complex.
- By 2029, will this turn out to be false?
Mercados abiertos
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 135,2 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 102,7 mil €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 9,1 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 325 mil €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 resultados más
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will AI find vulnerabilities that couldn't have been found by an elite human researcher??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Yes al 58% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will AI find vulnerabilities that couldn't have been found by an elite human researcher??
- Está previsto que Will AI find vulnerabilities that couldn't have been found by an elite human researcher? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2028.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will AI find vulnerabilities that couldn't have been found by an elite human researcher??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: From https://blog.mozilla.org/en/privacy-security/ai-security-zero-day-vulnerabilities/: