¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will AI cause a financial crash within a decade? (By Oct 2032)?

Manifold Markets cotiza Yes al 56% a fecha de 30 de octubre de 2026.

¿Cuándo se resuelve Will AI cause a financial crash within a decade? (By Oct 2032)?

Está previsto que Will AI cause a financial crash within a decade? (By Oct 2032) se resuelva el 20 de octubre de 2032.

Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: As per Business Insider, SEC Chariman Gary Gensler says this is 'nearly unavoidable.'

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Sí 56%

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Play-money forecasting platform

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Actualizado hace 40 minutos

1 ago 26, 16:23 UTC20 oct 32, 3:59 UTC

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As per Business Insider, SEC Chariman Gary Gensler says this is 'nearly unavoidable.'

"I do think we will in the future have a financial crisis . . .[and] in the after action reports people will say 'Aha! There was either one data aggregator or one model . . . we've relied on.' Maybe it's in the mortgage market.
Maybe it's in some sector of the equity market," he said.
I figured it would be fun to see how likely we actually think it is.
Note that the 'models go haywire' scenario is not required, only that AI be to blame in some way.
This resolves to YES if there is a period of one month during which the stock market (S&P 500) declines in nominal terms by 20% or more between market closes AND that decline is generally attributed to AI (e.g. Wikipedia says this, or whatever passes for consensus authority by 2032, I will use best judgment).