¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will a third party win a federal office in the US before the end of 2028??

Manifold Markets cotiza No al 91% a fecha de 6 de noviembre de 2026.

Will a third party win a federal office in the US before the end of 2028?

Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibrado

Pronóstico comunitario actual

No 91%

Pronosticadores

Tipo de pregunta

binary

Metodología

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fuente

Pronóstico

Datos de mercado

Actualizado hace 6 horas

Desactualizado

8 jul 25, 3:15 UTC31 dic 28, 23:59 UTC

Tendencias

Resultado24hProbabilidad

Reglas

"federal office" refers to the presidency, vice-presidency, the Senate, and the House of Representatives.

The candidate representing the "third party" cannot be an independent (nor a Democrat, or a Republican).
To "win" a federal office means the office must be obtained by the third party in an election, so an elected Democrat, Republican, or independent joining a third party in an office that they won beforehand as one of the above would not count.
This question will include results from the 2028 elections and can resolve to presumptive winners as of December 2028 (which is to say, this question does not need to wait until a third party's candidates are formally in-office and can resolve to the confirmation of their election).