Will a sitting US Supreme Court justice resign or die in office before 2027?
PolíticaOne-OffPolítica de EE. UU.2m
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 86.7%
Pronosticadores
21
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 1 hora
Retrasado21 jul 26, 2:22 UTC1 ene 27, 4:59 UTC
Tendencias
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FutuurReglas
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if any sitting justice of the Supreme Court of the United States dies or officially vacates their seat (via retirement or resignation) on or before December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM Eastern Time (ET).
- The market will resolve to NO if all nine current sitting justices remain in active office through the end of 2026.
- Key Definitions and Rules:
- Sitting Justices: The current nine justices are John Roberts, Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, Sonia Sotomayor, Elena Kagan, Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh, Amy Coney Barrett, and Ketanji Brown Jackson.
- Resignation / Retirement: A justice must formally vacate their seat on or before the deadline.
