Will a major tech company publicly pause or limit AI development due to safety concerns before January 1, 2027?
RegulaciónIAOne-OffTecnología2m
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualSí 57.5%
Pronosticadores
16
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 13 minutos
18 mar 26, 16:26 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Frontier AI lab pulls a model over safety concerns in 2026?
PolymarketWill China deploy domestic EUV sub-7nm chips for major tech by EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsBy 2034, will at least 1 major tech company lobby for nuclear power?
Manifold MarketsWill major tech company announce functional brain-computer interface able to read complex human thoughts by end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill MalgoTechnologies be a TOP AI Development company
Manifold MarketsWill another state ban or pause police use of Flock cameras by December 31?
PolymarketReglas
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if a major tech company (defined as a company with market capitalization exceeding $100 billion or annual revenue exceeding $50 billion) publicly announces a pause or meaningful limitation on AI development activities due to safety concerns before January 1, 2027.
- The announcement must explicitly cite safety as the primary reason and involve a concrete action (e.g., halting training of specific models, delaying product releases, or reducing AI R&D investment).
- Statements about "prioritizing safety" or implementing safety measures without pausing development do not qualify.
- Resolution sources include official company announcements, SEC filings, press releases, and statements from company leadership reported by major news outlets.
- As of July 2024, a pause on AI development has not been realized—instead, AI companies have directed "vast investments in infrastructure to train ever-more giant AI systems".
