¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will a cosmic string be detected by pulsar timing arrays by EOY 2030??

Manifold Markets cotiza No al 93% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.

Will a cosmic string be detected by pulsar timing arrays by EOY 2030?

One-OffCiencia Space4a

Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptable

Pronóstico comunitario actual

No 93.1%

Pronosticadores

Tipo de pregunta

binary

Metodología

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fuente

Pronóstico

Datos de mercado

Actualizado hace 6 horas

Desactualizado

23 ago 26, 2:07 UTC31 dic 30, 23:59 UTC

Tendencias

Resultado24hProbabilidad

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Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if, on or before December 31, 2030, at 11:59 PM UTC, a major pulsar timing array (PTA) collaboration—such as NANOGrav, EPTA, PPTA, InPTA, CPTA, or the overarching International Pulsar Timing Array (IPTA)—publishes a peer-reviewed paper or releases an official announcement declaring the confirmed detection of cosmic strings (or cosmic superstrings).
To qualify as a "detection" for a YES resolution:
The publication or announcement must explicitly claim a discovery or detection of cosmic strings, rather than merely stating that they are "not ruled out," "consistent with" the data, or "highly constrained".
The signal must be attributed to cosmic strings—either via a stochastic gravitational-wave background (SGWB) component definitively associated with cosmic string networks, or through individual gravitational-wave bursts (such as from cosmic string cusps or kinks).
The statistical significance of the detection must meet the scientific collaboration's threshold for a formal claim of detection/discovery (typically a $5\sigma$ significance or a decisive Bayes factor over alternative hypotheses like supermassive black hole binaries) as stated in the official announcement.

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Preguntas frecuentes

¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will a cosmic string be detected by pulsar timing arrays by EOY 2030??: Manifold Markets cotiza No al 93% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
¿Cuándo se resuelve Will a cosmic string be detected by pulsar timing arrays by EOY 2030??: Está previsto que Will a cosmic string be detected by pulsar timing arrays by EOY 2030? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2030.
¿Cómo se liquida Will a cosmic string be detected by pulsar timing arrays by EOY 2030??: Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolution criteria

Reportar un problema de datos de este mercado

Will a cosmic string be detected by pulsar timing arrays by EOY 2030?

One-OffCiencia Space4a

Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptable

Pronóstico comunitario actual

No 93.1%

Pronosticadores

Tipo de pregunta

binary

Metodología

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fuente

Pronóstico

Datos de mercado

Actualizado hace 6 horas

Desactualizado

23 ago 26, 2:07 UTC31 dic 30, 23:59 UTC

Tendencias

Resultado24hProbabilidad

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Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if, on or before December 31, 2030, at 11:59 PM UTC, a major pulsar timing array (PTA) collaboration—such as NANOGrav, EPTA, PPTA, InPTA, CPTA, or the overarching International Pulsar Timing Array (IPTA)—publishes a peer-reviewed paper or releases an official announcement declaring the confirmed detection of cosmic strings (or cosmic superstrings).
To qualify as a "detection" for a YES resolution:
The publication or announcement must explicitly claim a discovery or detection of cosmic strings, rather than merely stating that they are "not ruled out," "consistent with" the data, or "highly constrained".
The signal must be attributed to cosmic strings—either via a stochastic gravitational-wave background (SGWB) component definitively associated with cosmic string networks, or through individual gravitational-wave bursts (such as from cosmic string cusps or kinks).
The statistical significance of the detection must meet the scientific collaboration's threshold for a formal claim of detection/discovery (typically a $5\sigma$ significance or a decisive Bayes factor over alternative hypotheses like supermassive black hole binaries) as stated in the official announcement.

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Preguntas frecuentes

¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will a cosmic string be detected by pulsar timing arrays by EOY 2030??: Manifold Markets cotiza No al 93% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
¿Cuándo se resuelve Will a cosmic string be detected by pulsar timing arrays by EOY 2030??: Está previsto que Will a cosmic string be detected by pulsar timing arrays by EOY 2030? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2030.
¿Cómo se liquida Will a cosmic string be detected by pulsar timing arrays by EOY 2030??: Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolution criteria

Reportar un problema de datos de este mercado