Will 2026 turnout exceed 2022? (US midterms, percentage)
PolíticaOne-OffPolítica de EE. UU.Elección1m
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualSí 83.5%
Pronosticadores
86
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 2 horas
Desactualizado4 jul 25, 14:35 UTC30 nov 26, 23:59 UTC
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ForecastExReglas
Will turnout in the 2026 midterm exceed that of the 2022 midterm?
- Turnout calculated as total voter turnout as percent of citizen voting age population (CVAP).
- The official source will be the 2026 Election Administration and Voting Survey from the Election Assistance Commission.
- In 2022, turnout was 46.8% (112,054,124 voters out of 239,035,960 CVAP).
- The report is not expected until late June; if a consensus of credible reporting is available sooner, and this market is priced stably, it may resolve early.
- If things are close or unclear, we may have to wait for the report.
