Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
SpaceX 56%Líder entre 3 opciones
Pronosticadores
10
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 17 horas
Desactualizado23 abr 26, 10:54 UTC30 dic 32, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will Blue Origin land on the moon before SpaceX?
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PolymarketReglas
As of April 2026, SpaceX and the named outcome are NASA's two contracted Human Landing System (HLS) providers for the Artemis program.
- SpaceX holds the Artemis III contract (Starship HLS, mid-2027 target, now reconfigured as an Earth-orbit test).
- the named outcome holds the Artemis V contract (Blue Moon Mark 2, ~2030).
- In October 2025, then-acting NASA Administrator Sean Duffy reopened the Artemis III landing contract amid Starship HLS delays, and the named outcome is reportedly developing a "Mark 1.5" crewed variant based on Blue Moon Mark 1 that could potentially fly sooner.
- This market resolves based on which company's lander first carries at least one human to a soft landing on the lunar surface, whether on a NASA Artemis mission, a commercial mission, or any other flight.
- Resolution criteria:
Mercados abiertos
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 8pm EDT?
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- Volumen 24h
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KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 90° or above+68.0pt95.2%
- 88° to 89°-22.0pt1%
- 84° to 85°-8.0pt1%
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KALSHIBTC 15 min · $78,442.97 target
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KALSHIHighest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Who will land humans on the Moon first: SpaceX or Blue Origin??
- Manifold Markets cotiza SpaceX al 56% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Who will land humans on the Moon first: SpaceX or Blue Origin??
- Está previsto que Who will land humans on the Moon first: SpaceX or Blue Origin? se resuelva el 30 de diciembre de 2032.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Who will land humans on the Moon first: SpaceX or Blue Origin??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: As of April 2026, SpaceX and the named outcome are NASA's two contracted Human Landing System (HLS) providers for the Artemis program.