Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableAviso de calidad de datosDatos de la fuente degradados
Datos del 26 oct 2026, 11:00 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Pronóstico comunitario actual
SpaceX 56%Líder entre 3 opciones
SpaceX 56%Pronosticadores
10
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 7 horas
Desactualizado23 abr 26, 10:54 UTC30 dic 32, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will Blue Origin land on the moon before SpaceX?
KalshiWill a state which is not the US contract SpaceX or Blue Origin to conduct a lunar landing before 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill Blue Origin land an uncrewed Blue Moon MK1 lander on the moon before SpaceX lands an uncrewed Starship?
Manifold MarketsWill SpaceX or Blue Origin conduct or be contracted to conduct a private lunar landing before 2035?
Manifold MarketsWhich crewed vehicle will be next to land humans on the Moon?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket launch?
KalshiReglas
As of April 2026, SpaceX and the named outcome are NASA's two contracted Human Landing System (HLS) providers for the Artemis program.
- SpaceX holds the Artemis III contract (Starship HLS, mid-2027 target, now reconfigured as an Earth-orbit test).
- the named outcome holds the Artemis V contract (Blue Moon Mark 2, ~2030).
- In October 2025, then-acting NASA Administrator Sean Duffy reopened the Artemis III landing contract amid Starship HLS delays, and the named outcome is reportedly developing a "Mark 1.5" crewed variant based on Blue Moon Mark 1 that could potentially fly sooner.
- This market resolves based on which company's lander first carries at least one human to a soft landing on the lunar surface, whether on a NASA Artemis mission, a commercial mission, or any other flight.
- Resolution criteria:
