Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualGannon Ken Van Dyke 97.6%Líder entre 14 opciones
Pronosticadores
210
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 3 horas
Desactualizado7 ene 26, 16:13 UTC1 ene 27, 6:00 UTC
Tendencias
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will we learn by 2027 that Maduro’s ouster was an internal coup with US assistance?
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Manifold MarketsReglas
As described here: https://www.wsj.com/world/americas/maduro-polymarket-bet-a2e5d100
- I will resolve after the end of 2026 based on my own appraisal of the consensus of publicly available, credible reporting at that time (not based on my own speculation).
- I may resolve to partial probabilities if there has been some reporting but it does not rise to the level of consensus or near-certainty in my view.
- I do not plan to get overly granular about the probabilities in this hypothetical partial resolution case - it's gonna be something like "50% we don't find out, 50% this person" or "25% we don't find out, 50% this person, 25% that person" if I go that route.
- I'll be mentally rounding probabilities above 90% or below 10% to 100% and 0% respectively when I resolve.
- Feel free to add answers (I'm making the market partially in the hopes people will do research to find likely candidates I don't know about) but please note that duplicate answers will be ignored (the first one wins), as will any answers that do not refer to a specific, named person (other than "we don't find out").
Mercados abiertos
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 135,2 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 102,7 mil €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 9,1 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 325 mil €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 resultados más
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
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- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
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- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Who was the Polymarket trader who made $400k betting on Maduro's ouster??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Gannon Ken Van Dyke al 98% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Who was the Polymarket trader who made $400k betting on Maduro's ouster??
- Está previsto que Who was the Polymarket trader who made $400k betting on Maduro's ouster? se resuelva el 1 de enero de 2027.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Who was the Polymarket trader who made $400k betting on Maduro's ouster??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: As described here: https://www.wsj.com/world/americas/maduro-polymarket-bet-a2e5d100