Which party will win the 2026 U.S. House election in Missouri's 4th District?
PolíticaOne-OffPolítica de EE. UU.ElecciónElecciones de mitad de mandato de EE. UU. 202624dManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualRepublican Party — Mark Alford 93.8%Líder entre 3 opciones
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multiple choice
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Actualizado hace 6 horas
Desactualizado6 oct 26, 6:03 UTC4 nov 26, 12:00 UTC
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This market resolves to the party of the winner of the 2026 election for U.S. Representative for Missouri's 4th congressional district — the term beginning January 3, 2027.
- Which round counts: the November 3, 2026 general election for the numbered district on the map in effect for that election (the 2022 map per the U.S. Supreme Court's order of September 25, 2026 in 26A388); nominees were chosen and certified by district number.
- Primaries do not count.
- Party rule: the winner's party is the party on whose line or with whose party designation they appear on the official general-election ballot.
- A candidate nominated by Democratic Party or Republican Party who also appears on other parties' lines (fusion) counts as that party's candidate.
- Candidates who are independent, have no party preference, or belong to any other party resolve to "the named outcome", even if they say they would caucus with a major party.
