Which party will win the 2026 U.S. House election in Hawaii's 1st District?
PolíticaOne-OffPolítica de EE. UU.ElecciónElecciones de mitad de mandato de EE. UU. 202615d
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualDemocratic Party — Ed Case 97.9%Líder entre 3 opciones
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2
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multiple choice
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Actualizado hace 7 horas
Desactualizado6 oct 26, 5:45 UTC4 nov 26, 12:00 UTC
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Manifold MarketsReglas
This market resolves to the party of the winner of the 2026 election for U.S. Representative for Hawaii's 1st congressional district — the term beginning January 3, 2027.
- Which round counts: the November 3, 2026 general election (plurality winner).
- Primaries do not count.
- Party rule: the winner's party is the party on whose line or with whose party designation they appear on the official general-election ballot.
- A candidate nominated by Democratic Party or Republican Party who also appears on other parties' lines (fusion) counts as that party's candidate.
- Candidates who are independent, have no party preference, or belong to any other party resolve to "the named outcome", even if they say they would caucus with a major party.
