Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualGPT (OpenAI) 78.3%+10.1ptLíder entre 5 opciones
Pronosticadores
5
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
+11.3 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 12 horas
Desactualizado21 nov 25, 2:0231 dic 26, 23:59
Tendencias
Reglas
Resolves to whoever releases a model with the highest version number in the name, including sub-versions, by the end of 2026.
- Doesn’t count if someone releases a model with a number that isn’t a version number. “Grok 69” would not count. “GPT-6-preview” would count.
- The model must be publicly accessible.
- If there’s a tie, resolves evenly split among tied companies.
- Update 2025-11-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Version number comparison: If there is ambiguity in comparing version numbers (e.g., 5.9 vs 5.11), the creator will ask each model how to resolve the market and resolve to the average of their opinions.
