Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualOpenAI 32.6%Líder entre 5 opciones
Pronosticadores
5
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
-0.6 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 1 hora
Retrasado26 ago 26, 19:19 UTC31 dic 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
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KalshiAI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
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PolymarketReglas
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to the organization or laboratory (e.g., OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, or others) that developed the model holding the highest general capability score on the official Epoch Capabilities Index (ECI) Leaderboard (interactive version at epoch.ai/eci) as of December 31, 2027.
- The resolution will be based on the general ECI, rather than domain-specific sub-indices (such as the Math ECI or SWE ECI).
- Highest score is determined by the model with the highest point estimate on the index.
- If there is an exact tie between models from different organizations, resolution will be split equally among the tying options.
- If Epoch AI has ceased updating or maintaining the ECI, or if the site is permanently down at the end of 2027, the market will resolve based on the last available snapshot of the index on the Internet Archive Wayback Machine from 2027.
Mercados abiertos
AIPOLYMARKETAI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- 2027+12.5pt89%
- 2026+23.0pt71%
- September 30, 2026+24.5pt43%
- Volumen total
- 125,2 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 55 mil €
POLYMARKETWhich Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
- Hodge Conjecture+8.0pt42.9%
- Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer-1.0pt25.7%
- Yang-Mills+13.6pt14.3%
+3 resultados más
POLYMARKETOpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- 2027+33.0pt90%
- 2026+21.5pt50%
- September 30, 2026+20.5pt34%
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-23.0pt38%
- 2027-1.0pt17%
- 2026-2.0pt5%
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+6.0pt62.8%
- ChatGPT-0.6pt20.6%
- Gemini-0.9pt6.9%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 9,3 M €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+0.5pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,84%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 2,4 M €
- Anthropic market share this week
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- DeepSeek market share this week
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- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic announces a Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
- Tencent market share this week
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Which frontier lab will top the Epoch Capabilities Index EOY 2027??
- Manifold Markets cotiza OpenAI al 33% a fecha de 11 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Which frontier lab will top the Epoch Capabilities Index EOY 2027??
- Está previsto que Which frontier lab will top the Epoch Capabilities Index EOY 2027? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2027.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Which frontier lab will top the Epoch Capabilities Index EOY 2027??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolution criteria