![[5k Subsidy] Which diseases will be eliminated first in the USA? 1st solved 100%, 2nd 95%, 3rd 90%, etc. until mid 2036](/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstorage.googleapis.com%2Fmantic-markets.appspot.com%2Fcontract-images%2FErnie%252F9b728a68a79f.jpg&w=128&q=80)
[5k Subsidy] Which diseases will be eliminated first in the USA? 1st solved 100%, 2nd 95%, 3rd 90%, etc. until mid 2036
RegulaciónIA9a
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
Malaria 66.8%Líder entre 35 opciones
Malaria 66.8%Pronosticadores
42
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multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
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Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
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Actualizado hace 42 minutos
25 feb 24, 22:07 UTC1 jul 36, 6:59 UTC
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Cured means that in the US, the disease occurs/harms/kills at a rate <=10% the rate it occurred in US residents at EOY 2023 (or best available).
- That is, the rate of new cases of the disease has decreased by at least 90%
- OR, cases happen more often that that BUT the negative consequences can and are normally and easily solved. i.e. if it does happen, the damage done is only 10% as bad as before (by total life expectancy or total QALY impact).
- For example, if we make a disease which used to cause -10 lifespan only take -2, that's not quite enough, but if we also reduce the negative QALY impact by 90%, then that is clearly enough.
- Hard case: where the combined improvement is >90% but the individual QALY+expectancy numbers aren't below it.
- I would like to count this case as a yes but that is proportional to net damage.