When will the US enact a universal basic income of at least $500/month per adult?
InflaciónOne-OffPolítica comercialPolíticaElecciónManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableAviso de calidad de datosDatos de la fuente degradados
Datos del 25 oct 2026, 19:45 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Pronóstico comunitario actualNot by the end of 2050 75.1%Líder entre 6 opciones
Pronosticadores
3
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 9 horas
Desactualizado30 sept 26, 0:07 UTC1 ene 51, 4:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
By the end of 2036, will the US enact a universal cash payment to all adults of at least... (per year, 2026 dollars)
Manifold MarketsWill the US implement an UBI (universal basic income) before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill any EU country implement an UBI (universal basic income) before 2040?
Manifold MarketsWill any state in the USA implement a universal basic income of at least $10,000 before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the U.S. enact a free trade agreement?
KalshiWill the U.S. enact a free trade agreement with China?
KalshiReglas
Resolves to the calendar-year bucket (Eastern Time) in which the US enacts a federal universal basic income, as defined below.
- The buckets roughly follow presidential terms.
- If none is enacted by December 31, 2050, it resolves to "the named outcome".
- I'll resolve early as soon as a qualifying law is enacted.
- What counts.
- A federal statute that becomes law (signed by the President, passed over a veto, or enacted without signature) and creates or amends a cash payment program so that it meets all five conditions:
