Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
2030 or later 43.5%Líder entre 7 opciones
Pronosticadores
3
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 9 horas
Desactualizado26 jul 24, 9:08 UTC1 ene 30, 22:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will we have a formalized proof of the Modularity theorem by 2029-05-01?
Manifold MarketsWill someone in "dama iipeikou" newly solve Project Euler 696 before the end of this year?
Manifold MarketsWill the U.S. attempt a large scale Solar Radiation Modification geoengineering project before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiReglas
The Stacks Project is an extensive open-source textbook and reference work focused on algebraic geometry and related fields.
- Each lemma, theorem, definition, remark, example, and other significant items within the project is assigned a unique tag, with the current scope of the project including more than 21000 tags.
- This question resolves to the first year in which at least 11000 tags of the stacks project have been formalized in a proof assistant such as Lean, Coq, Isabelle, etc. It resolves to the last option (the named outcome) if no such milestone has been reached by the end of 2029.
- Further information on resolution criteria:
- I consider it to be almost certain that a formalization as above will require a concerted project which includes a mechanism to track the progress on the number of formalized tags.
- If such a project is created, this would be used to determine the year of resolution above.
Mercados abiertos
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+19.9pt95%
- Before 2030+6.0pt82%
- Before 2029+7.3pt55%
+2 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 226,3 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 125,2 mil €
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 resultados más
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029+1.0pt21%
- Before 202813%
- Before 2027+0.1pt5%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 28,6 M €
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2030+71.0pt92%
- Before 2035+11.0pt56%
- Before 203248%
+1 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 108,3 mil €
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No97%
- Yes-0.9pt3%
- Volumen total
- 1,6 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 5,2 mil €
POLYMARKETMin Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- 4.4-4.6m+18.6pt65.7%
- 4.2-4.4m-20.9pt26.5%
- 4.6-4.8m+0.8pt2.9%
+4 resultados más
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
- Major volcano eruption in 2026?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
- US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?
- How many human screwworm cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de When will the majority of the Stacks project be formalized??
- Manifold Markets cotiza 2030 or later al 44% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve When will the majority of the Stacks project be formalized??
- Está previsto que When will the majority of the Stacks project be formalized? se resuelva el 1 de enero de 2030.
- ¿Cómo se liquida When will the majority of the Stacks project be formalized??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: The Stacks Project is an extensive open-source textbook and reference work focused on algebraic geometry and related fields.