Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualBy end of June 2027 95.4%Líder entre 17 opciones
Pronosticadores
59
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 5 minutos
11 mar 24, 8:10 UTC1 ene 27, 12:59 UTC
Tendencias
0%
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Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
When will Starship first deploy a commercial* satellite to orbit?
Manifold MarketsWill SpaceX attempt to deploy Starlink satellites in the first fully-orbital Starship–SuperHeavy flight?
Manifold MarketsBy when will Starship deploy a payload bigger than a Starlink?
Manifold MarketsStarlink active subscribers in Q3
KalshiSpaceX to spin off Starlink in 2026?
FutuurAST SpaceMobile BlueBird satellites in orbit above __ in Q4 2026?
LimitlessReglas
Answers resolve YES once SpaceX confirms that a Starlink satellite (that had been launched on a Starship) has been successfully deployed to orbit
- Otherwise, answers will resolve NO as their dates are reached (or may resolve NO early if sufficiently certain)
- Resolves based on the time of deployment, not the time of launch
- Any type of Starlink satellite counts as long as Starlink is in the name (eg Starshield would not count despite being a close derivative)
- Additionally, the Starlink satellite must be technically capable of functioning (i.e. starlink mass simulators or dummy starlinks wouldn't count), though whether the satellite actually functions successfully or not once in orbit is irrelevant
- Related markets:
Mercados abiertos
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KALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 2pm EDT?
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KALSHIBTC 15 min · $78,547.84 target
- Yes60%
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- Volumen 24h
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KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de When will Starship first deploy a Starlink satellite to orbit??
- Manifold Markets cotiza By end of June 2027 al 95% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve When will Starship first deploy a Starlink satellite to orbit??
- Está previsto que When will Starship first deploy a Starlink satellite to orbit? se resuelva el 1 de enero de 2027.
- ¿Cómo se liquida When will Starship first deploy a Starlink satellite to orbit??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Answers resolve YES once SpaceX confirms that a Starlink satellite (that had been launched on a Starship) has been successfully deployed to orbit