Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualBy end of December 2028 87.1%Líder entre 11 opciones
Pronosticadores
48
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 1 hora
Retrasado11 mar 24, 8:27 UTC1 ene 27, 12:59 UTC
Tendencias
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
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KalshiReglas
Answers resolve YES once SpaceX confirms that a commercial payload* (that had been launched on a Starship) has been successfully deployed to orbit
- Otherwise answers will resolve NO as their dates are reached (or may resolve NO early if sufficiently certain)
- *A commercial payload is any satellite deployed from Starship that was paid for by an entity other than SpaceX - hence Starlink missions and other internal payloads do not count, and nor do payloads that remain within Starship (or Starship itself in cases like the Artemis HLS missions)
- Resolves based on the time of deployment, not the time of launch
- Additional clarifications:
- Payloads designed by SpaceX can count, provided the payload was paid for by an external entity.
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de When will Starship first deploy a commercial* satellite to orbit??
- Manifold Markets cotiza By end of December 2028 al 87% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve When will Starship first deploy a commercial* satellite to orbit??
- Está previsto que When will Starship first deploy a commercial* satellite to orbit? se resuelva el 1 de enero de 2027.
- ¿Cómo se liquida When will Starship first deploy a commercial* satellite to orbit??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Answers resolve YES once SpaceX confirms that a commercial payload* (that had been launched on a Starship) has been successfully deployed to orbit