Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualBy end of December 2028 87.1%Líder entre 11 opciones
Pronosticadores
49
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 8 minutos
11 mar 24, 8:27 UTC1 ene 27, 12:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will Helion deploy a commercial fusion reactor before 2040?
Manifold MarketsBy when will Starship deploy a payload bigger than a Starlink?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Starship deploy satellites for the 2nd time?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketHow many launches will SpaceX have in October?
KalshiWhich company has the best AI model end of November?
PolymarketReglas
Answers resolve YES once SpaceX confirms that a commercial payload* (that had been launched on a Starship) has been successfully deployed to orbit
- Otherwise answers will resolve NO as their dates are reached (or may resolve NO early if sufficiently certain)
- *A commercial payload is any satellite deployed from Starship that was paid for by an entity other than SpaceX - hence Starlink missions and other internal payloads do not count, and nor do payloads that remain within Starship (or Starship itself in cases like the Artemis HLS missions)
- Resolves based on the time of deployment, not the time of launch
- Additional clarifications:
- Payloads designed by SpaceX can count, provided the payload was paid for by an external entity.