Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableAviso de calidad de datosDatos de la fuente degradados
Datos del 26 oct 2026, 2:39 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Pronóstico comunitario actualNever announces a 2028 presidential run. 51.9%Líder entre 10 opciones
Pronosticadores
7
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 13 horas
Desactualizado19 ene 26, 17:32 UTC30 dic 28, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
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ForecastExWill the Democrats win the Senate, Democrats win the House, and Republicans win the Presidency in the 2028 election?
ForecastExReglas
Resolution criteria
- For each answer, resolve YES if Kelly makes an official public announcement that he is running for U.S. president in the 2028 election on or before that answer’s cutoff; resolve NO otherwise. “before [date]” is treated as on or before 11:59:59 pm Eastern Time on that date.
- e.g. if the announcement occurs on Dec 15, 2027, the "the named outcome" AND "the named outcome" options resolve YES.
- Acceptable evidence (use the earliest timestamp across sources):
- FEC Form 2 (Statement of Candidacy) filed for a 2028 presidential run.
- An explicit statement by Kelly or an authorized spokesperson that he is running for president in 2028 (e.g., on his verified social accounts or official site).
