Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualbefore Mar 31, 2028 75%Líder entre 14 opciones
Pronosticadores
42
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 15 horas
Desactualizado23 ago 25, 16:30 UTC30 dic 28, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will Gavin Newsom run for President in the 2028 election?
Manifold MarketsWill Gavin Newsom run for President in 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Gavin Newsom run for president in 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Gavin Newsom be elected President in 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Gavin Newsom be elected President of the United States in 2028?
FutuurWill Gavin Newsom win the US Presidential Election in 2028?
ForecastExReglas
Resolution criteria
- For each answer, resolve YES if Gavin Newsom makes an official public announcement that he is running for U.S. president in the 2028 election on or before that answer’s cutoff; resolve NO otherwise. “before [date]” is treated as on or before 11:59:59 pm Eastern Time on that date.
- e.g. if the announcement occurs on Dec 15, 2027, the "the named outcome" AND "the named outcome" options resolve YES.
- Acceptable evidence (use the earliest timestamp across sources):
- FEC Form 2 (Statement of Candidacy) filed for a 2028 presidential run.
- An explicit statement by Newsom or an authorized spokesperson that he is running for president in 2028 (e.g., on his verified social accounts or official site - gavinnewsom.com).
