Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualBefore 2037 82.8%Líder entre 12 opciones
Pronosticadores
72
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
-2.2 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 15 horas
Desactualizado30 ago 25, 1:51 UTC22 ene 36, 0:37 UTC
Tendencias
0%
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will Donald Trump die or become seriously ill before the end of his term?
Manifold MarketsWill Donald Trump Die before 2027
Manifold MarketsWill Donald Trump die before Joe Biden?
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KalshiDonald Trump announces departure as President? (Excluding death)
KalshiWill Donald Trump issue a public apology?
KalshiReglas
This is a cumulative probability market.
- Therefore, for example, if Trump dies in 2027, "the named outcome" and "the named outcome" resolve NO, and "the named outcome", "the named outcome", etc. will all resolve YES.
- Answers will resolve early when time runs out and Trump has not yet died.
- For example, "the named outcome" will resolve NO if Trump has not died and 2026 has begun.
- There may be a delay before resolution to confirm that Trump has not died.
Mercados abiertos
US Politics
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 605,7 M €
- Volumen 24h
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POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 603,2 M €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.4pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 resultados más
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+9.8pt96%
- $25M+15.5pt94%
- $50M+31.5pt86%
+4 resultados más
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party84.2%
- Republican Party15.8%
- Volumen total
- 24,3 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 294,7 mil €
KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
- J.D. Vance44.7%
- Marco Rubio20.4%
- Ron DeSantis3.9%
+35 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 54,7 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 291,3 mil €
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Which party will win the House in 2026?
- Trump renames New Mexico to New America by which date?
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- Trump out as President by September 30?
- Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de When will Donald Trump die??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Before 2037 al 83% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve When will Donald Trump die??
- Está previsto que When will Donald Trump die? se resuelva el 22 de enero de 2036.
- ¿Cómo se liquida When will Donald Trump die??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: This is a cumulative probability market.