Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableAviso de calidad de datosDatos de la fuente degradados
Datos del 25 oct 2026, 9:30 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Pronóstico comunitario actualNot in 2026 22.5%Líder entre 6 opciones
Pronosticadores
9
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
-12.3 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 9 horas
Desactualizado10 oct 26, 20:17 UTC1 ene 27, 6:00 UTC
Tendencias
Reglas
@Bayesian resolved @/Bayesian/will-i-solve-an-unsolved-math-probl-5ZR0n0LOlE on Sept. 25, 2026 (earning himself Ṁ19,822) but has not yet revealed what problem(s) he solved.
- This market will resolve based on the day he names at least one problem he solved in a comment on that market.
- If we reach Jan 1, 2027 without an answer, it will resolve "the named outcome."
- Zvi's house rules apply: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ge3Jf5Hnon8wq4xqT/zvi-s-manifold-markets-house-rules
