When will AI forecasting crush human superforecasters?

DeportesOne-OffChess IA1a

Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibrado

Aviso de calidad de datosDatos obsoletos

Datos del 24 jul 2026, 14:10 UTC · política pm-quality-2

Pronóstico comunitario actual

Before July 2027 10.4%+0.2%

Líder entre 3 opciones

Pronosticadores

Tipo de pregunta

multiple choice

Metodología

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fuente

Pronóstico

Datos de mercado

Actualizado ayer

Desactualizado

7 jul 26, 4:561 jul 28, 7:00

Tendencias

Resultado24hProbabilidad

Solo fondos simulados, sin dinero realNo es asesoramiento financiero

Resultado elegido

Before July 202710%

Apuesta (USDT)

Reglas

Currently, in July 2026, the top forecasting bots are slightly below or equal to top humans.

Extrapolating their progress, they should leave humans in the dust between 1 and 2 years from now.
Unless the best humans are already near the theoretical maximum of how good even a superintelligence can be at forecasting.
In which case AI forecasting is about to plateau.
This is a big deal because Sayash Kapoor and Arvind Narayanan (the "AI as Normal Technology" (AINT) folks) have set this as one of their lines in the sand.
They claim that domains like chess and protein folding (and maybe math) are the exception and that in most domains, humans are already near the limit of how high performance can get.

Tendencia de volumen

$53

8 jul8d de datos24 jul

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Reglas

Currently, in July 2026, the top forecasting bots are slightly below or equal to top humans.

Extrapolating their progress, they should leave humans in the dust between 1 and 2 years from now.
Unless the best humans are already near the theoretical maximum of how good even a superintelligence can be at forecasting.
In which case AI forecasting is about to plateau.
This is a big deal because Sayash Kapoor and Arvind Narayanan (the "AI as Normal Technology" (AINT) folks) have set this as one of their lines in the sand.
They claim that domains like chess and protein folding (and maybe math) are the exception and that in most domains, humans are already near the limit of how high performance can get.

When will AI forecasting crush human superforecasters?

DeportesOne-OffChess IA1a

Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibrado

Aviso de calidad de datosDatos obsoletos

Datos del 24 jul 2026, 14:10 UTC · política pm-quality-2

Pronóstico comunitario actual

Before July 2027 10.4%+0.2%

Líder entre 3 opciones

Pronosticadores

Tipo de pregunta

multiple choice

Metodología

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fuente

Pronóstico

Datos de mercado

Actualizado ayer

Desactualizado

7 jul 26, 4:561 jul 28, 7:00

Tendencias

Resultado24hProbabilidad

Solo fondos simulados, sin dinero realNo es asesoramiento financiero

Resultado elegido

Before July 202710%

Apuesta (USDT)

Reglas

Currently, in July 2026, the top forecasting bots are slightly below or equal to top humans.

Extrapolating their progress, they should leave humans in the dust between 1 and 2 years from now.
Unless the best humans are already near the theoretical maximum of how good even a superintelligence can be at forecasting.
In which case AI forecasting is about to plateau.
This is a big deal because Sayash Kapoor and Arvind Narayanan (the "AI as Normal Technology" (AINT) folks) have set this as one of their lines in the sand.
They claim that domains like chess and protein folding (and maybe math) are the exception and that in most domains, humans are already near the limit of how high performance can get.

Tendencia de volumen

$53

8 jul8d de datos24 jul

Mercados Relacionados

Will OpenAI achieve "very high level of confidence" in their "Superalignment" solutions by 2027-07-06?

879,1 €

Sí: 3%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Which of these Language Models will beat me at chess?

262 €

GPT-5: 0%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

What will happen to OpenAI by 1st January 2029

42,2 €

It IPOs at an IPO Price that gives a $1trillion or higher valuation: 60.8%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

FIDE World Chess Championship 2026 Winner

9,5 mil €

Hikaru Nakamura: 3%

KALSHI

Who will be a part of the next government of Israel?

4,2 mil €

Blue and White: 21%

KALSHI

Titled Tuesday Winner: Jul 28

2,9 mil €

Magnus Carlsen: 61%

KALSHI

Activos en estos temas

BitcoinBTC$64,507.36+0.69%

EthereumETH$1,886.56+1.51%

SolanaSOL$74.94+1.38%

DogecoinDOGE$0.0733+5.54%

XRPXRP$1.10+0.97%

BNBBNB$570.44+0.87%

Noticias Relacionadas

Coinbase Opens Payment Rails for AI Agents as Corporate Clients Accept Autonomous TransactionsBlockchain Reporter

Google Is Building an AI Chip Just for Gemini—And Investors Already Moved On ItDecrypt

WhiteBIT Launches AI Hub: Trade, Monitor and Automate Through Your Favourite AI AssistantBlockchain Reporter

Over 95% of Coinbase’s code is now written with AICointelegraph

DeepSeek plots $71B IPO to challenge OpenAI in global AI raceCrypto News

DeepMind CEO Says AGI Will Be Bigger Than Electricity or FireDecrypt

Reglas

Currently, in July 2026, the top forecasting bots are slightly below or equal to top humans.

Extrapolating their progress, they should leave humans in the dust between 1 and 2 years from now.
Unless the best humans are already near the theoretical maximum of how good even a superintelligence can be at forecasting.
In which case AI forecasting is about to plateau.
This is a big deal because Sayash Kapoor and Arvind Narayanan (the "AI as Normal Technology" (AINT) folks) have set this as one of their lines in the sand.
They claim that domains like chess and protein folding (and maybe math) are the exception and that in most domains, humans are already near the limit of how high performance can get.