Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
2026 47.4%Líder entre 8 opciones
Pronosticadores
19
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 1 hora
Retrasado11 ene 24, 1:34 UTC1 ene 31, 4:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Multi year market: Will AI be as big a political issue as abortion?
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PolymarketReglas
The resolve year will be the year I started noticing a majority of the comments in the market argue that AI is at least as big a political issue as abortion.
- I will try my best to be impartial, and I will use my judgement.
- (edit: once I started noticing a majority of the comments in the market argue that AI is at least as big a political issue as abortion, I will conduct a poll on Manifold asking if AI is at least as big a political issue as abortion, and resolve Yes to the year if the poll has more vote on Yes than No)
Mercados abiertos
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Volumen total
- 224,7 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 160,5 mil €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 resultados más
- Volumen total
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 2,3 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 344,9 mil €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 9,1 M €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 resultados más
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de When will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion on Manifold??
- Manifold Markets cotiza 2026 al 47% a fecha de 9 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve When will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion on Manifold??
- Está previsto que When will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion on Manifold? se resuelva el 1 de enero de 2031.
- ¿Cómo se liquida When will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion on Manifold??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: The resolve year will be the year I started noticing a majority of the comments in the market argue that AI is at least as big a political issue as abortion.