Pronóstico comunitario actual
Sí 91.7%
Pronosticadores
2,710
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
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Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 5 horas
Desactualizado20 feb 23, 22:58 UTC2 ene 28, 7:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
When will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion on Manifold?
Manifold MarketsMulti year market: Will AI be as big a political issue as abortion?
Manifold MarketsIn 2028, will AI be a top 3 political issue for voters?
Manifold MarketsWill an AI professional-impersonation bill become law in New York?
KalshiU.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
PolymarketWill the US government take control of any AI company or project before 2030?
KalshiReglas
I will resolve this based on some combination of how much it gets talked about in elections, how much money goes to interest groups on both topics, and how much of the "political conversation" seems to be about either.
Mercados abiertos
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Volumen total
- 224,7 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 160,5 mil €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 resultados más
- Volumen total
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 2,3 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 344,9 mil €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 9,1 M €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 resultados más
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de En 2028, ¿será la IA un tema político tan importante como el aborto??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Yes al 92% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve En 2028, ¿será la IA un tema político tan importante como el aborto??
- Está previsto que En 2028, ¿será la IA un tema político tan importante como el aborto? se resuelva el 2 de enero de 2028.
- ¿Cómo se liquida En 2028, ¿será la IA un tema político tan importante como el aborto??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: I will resolve this based on some combination of how much it gets talked about in elections, how much money goes to interest groups on both topics, and how much of the "political conversation" seems to be about either.