Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualBefore 2027-04-01 52.3%Líder entre 13 opciones
Pronosticadores
31
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 1 hora
Retrasado7 mar 24, 13:54 UTC14 mar 28, 22:59 UTC
Tendencias
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
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KalshiReglas
This market covers videos generated by AI from scratch (for instance from a text prompt), not AI transformations of an input video, which have existed for some time now.
- The market will resolve positively when a channel on YouTube or Twitch will stream at least 25 hours of realtime AI-generated video in the span of 48 hours.
- Traditional procedurally generated videos do not count.
- There should be consensus in the community that the video is AI-generated.
- The channel owner should declare it, and no plausible refutation should be published within a week after the broadcast.
- If the channel owner remains silent, I might resolve the market based on a poll or the comments.
Mercados abiertos
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 135,2 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 102,7 mil €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 9,1 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 325 mil €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 resultados más
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de When will a YouTube or Twitch channel start streaming realtime AI-generated video??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Before 2027-04-01 al 52% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve When will a YouTube or Twitch channel start streaming realtime AI-generated video??
- Está previsto que When will a YouTube or Twitch channel start streaming realtime AI-generated video? se resuelva el 14 de marzo de 2028.
- ¿Cómo se liquida When will a YouTube or Twitch channel start streaming realtime AI-generated video??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: This market covers videos generated by AI from scratch (for instance from a text prompt), not AI transformations of an input video, which have existed for some time now.